For this publication, regional and global aggregates up to 2023 are calculated using data supplied by Member States to ITU, supplemented by ITU estimates. Aggregates can differ from those produced for previous editions of Facts and Figures, because of new or revised data submitted by Member States. Except for the price data, all 2024 aggregates are estimates computed by ITU, based on the methodology described below. For more detailed information, please refer to estimation methods for selected ICT indicators.
The percentage of the population covered by a mobile signal (2G/3G/4G/5G and above) refers to the percentage of inhabitants who have access to such coverage, regardless of whether they use the service. The indicator thus measures the availability of mobile cellular services, not the actual level of use or subscriptions. It is differentiated by urban and rural areas.
However, the data for this indicator are generally provided in aggregate form (combining urban and rural). As with many indicators, ITU collects the data from telecommunication operators, telecommunication/ICT regulators and national ministries. This information is widely available for both developed and developing countries. To fill the data gaps for countries that do not submit data, two methods are employed: (1) estimation using published data; – and if the first method is not successful – (2) estimation using trends.
Method (1) Estimation using published data
Data on coverage are sometimes available in the report and/or on the website of regulators and/or operators. This information can be used to estimate network coverage for the population of a country. This process involves the following steps:
Once the data from all operators are available, the total percentage of the population covered can be calculated.
Method (2) Estimation using trends
When data are not available from filings or industry reports, it may be possible to produce estimates by analysing trends from the previous five years, using forecasting tools such as Expert Modeller in IBM SPSS.
Since the data available for most countries do not differentiate between urban and rural coverage, they require disaggregation. This is a straightforward calculation because mobile cellular coverage is virtually ubiquitous in urban areas, and the proportion of urban to rural inhabitants is published by the World Bank. This makes it possible to calculate how many rural inhabitants have coverage.
The percentage of the rural population covered by a mobile cellular signal (2G/3G/4G/5G) is then obtained by dividing the number of rural inhabitants with coverage by the total rural population and multiplying by 100.
Aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings are calculated as the population-weighted mean of the values for the individual countries in that region or group.
Household surveys are a valuable source of statistics on Internet use and mobile phone ownership. However, relatively few countries administer such surveys, mainly owing to their cost; accordingly, there are large data gaps.
In addition, the delay between the collection of household survey data and their publication can be as much as two years or more, limiting their usefulness for ICT statistics given the rapid pace of technological change.
To overcome these shortcomings, data modelling and imputation are used to estimate missing historical values, and then nowcasting techniques are used to estimate the figures for 2024. The models used to estimate these missing values rely on a diverse range of widely available national indicators for mobile broadband subscriptions, ICT services affordability, and GNI per capita, among others, and account for their changes over time. Weighted regression is used to give proportional influence in models to each region based on its number of countries.
In addition to official data from the membership, important sources used to obtain data and/or cross-check estimates include the Gallup World Poll and the household survey of UNICEF, the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICF). Additional data on socio-demographic characteristics are obtained from the World Bank, UNESCO, the International Labour Organization and the Population Division in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations.
The official data and estimates are used to calculate aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings, based on a weighted average of the values for individual countries. Internet use aggregates are weighted by the total population of each economy, while mobile phone ownership aggregates are weighted by the size of the population aged 10 years or older.
Disaggregation of overall values is performed separately. For instance, where official country data on the number of Internet users are only available in aggregate form, the procedure is to look at comparable economies for which disaggregated data for urban and rural populations are available, so as to estimate the proportion of the urban population that uses the Internet. Existing data on the country’s overall Internet usage, population size and urbanization are then used to produce separate estimates of the proportion of the rural population using the Internet and the ratio between urban and rural usage levels. Global and regional figures are calculated by weighting the figures for individual countries by the rural and urban population in each country.
A similar procedure is used to estimate Internet use by young people and Internet use and mobile phone ownership by gender.
For 2024, nowcasting is used to estimate the proportion of individuals who use the Internet and own mobile phones. Predictions are made at the country level for overall Internet use based on the country’s growth history and that of other countries with similar levels of use. For all other indicators, predictions are produced for regional and global aggregates only, based on past growth.
The data on subscriptions in 2024 are compiled from publicly available data from regulators and ministries, as well as subscription information published by each country’s main operators. When operator data are used, the reported number of subscriptions is divided by the operator’s market share to obtain the total number of subscriptions in the country for a particular service. In the absence of annual reports, subscription data are estimated from industry analyses, authoritative news articles and operator press releases.
Data from these sources include the absolute number of subscriptions, market shares, penetration and growth rates, which are used to derive the country estimates using the same method as with operator data. In the case of countries for which data are not available either from the national administration or from filings and industry reports, subscriptions are estimated using univariate time series analyses applied to the data from the last 10 years.
The univariate time series analyses are done by decomposing the time series of penetration data of a particular service to its trend and residual component so as to obtain the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The resulting ARIMA models are used to make the 2024 point prediction for each country and service.
Aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings are calculated based on a weighted average of the values for individual countries.
ITU collects Internet traffic statistics on fixed and mobile broadband (inside the country) through its annual World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators short and long questionnaires according to the methodology provided in the Handbook for the Collection of Administrative Data on Telecommunications/ICT. Statistics refer to traffic over the open Internet, and thus exclude walled garden and IPTV services. Internet traffic over a mobile device connected through Wi-Fi to a fixed network is considered part of fixed broadband traffic.
Traffic figures for 2024 are estimates based on an extrapolation of trends in quarterly traffic per subscription, for countries that publish such figures. For all other countries, model-based estimates are used, relying on changes in subscriptions (see above) and average download speed, obtained from Ookla Speedtest data.[1]
Where Internet traffic statistics for 2023 or earlier are not available from the questionnaires, the figures are compiled from publicly available sources from regulators, ministries, the OECD Broadband statistics, or operator reports. In the absence of any of these alternative sources, ITU produces estimates, using modelling tools and imputation to estimate aggregates.
Fixed broadband Internet traffic estimates are based on the assumption that traffic is a function of technical conditions, moderating factors (quality of connectivity) and economic factors influencing demand. Consequently, models rely on ITU indicators such as the number of fixed broadband subscriptions (overall and in the speed tier above 100 Mbit/s), the share of individuals and households using the Internet, affordability of the fixed broadband price basket, average download speeds obtained from Ookla Speedtest data, and per capita income obtained from the World Bank. Mobile broadband traffic estimates are based on ITU data, including data-only mobile broadband affordability, share of individuals using the Internet, Ookla Speedtest data for average download speed, and per capita income. The actual linear model selected is based on data availability and model fit measures.
In cases where data are only missing for some of the years, extrapolations are made with the help of changes in average download speeds or exponential smoothing functions.
Traffic estimates have a number of limitations. First of all, many mobile operators and Internet service providers do not regularly publish traffic statistics, and the statistics provided by ministries and regulators often include estimates. While there are some good practices for publishing quarterly data on Internet traffic, few sources provide timely data. Second, the predictive power of the models used to estimate traffic is lower than for other indicators.
ITU price statistics refer to ICT baskets, which are internationally comparable units of ICT services. The Affordability of ICT services section above presents medians based on the 208 economies for which price data are available for both 2023 and 2024 for the data-only mobile broadband basket and on the 194 economies for which such data are available for the fixed broadband basket. The data-only mobile broadband basket is defined as the cheapest data-only mobile broadband subscription available domestically with a 3G technology or above and a minimum monthly data allowance of 2 GB. The fixed broadband basket is defined as the cheapest fixed Internet subscription available domestically with a minimum of 5 GB monthly data allowance and an advertised download speed of at least 256 kbit/s.
The 2024 ICT prices refer to retail prices for the basket in effect in May 2024. GNI per capita figures are obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators and refer to the latest available year (2023 or 2022), retrieved in October 2024; or, if unavailable, from the United Nations DESA National Accounts Main Aggregates Database. More details on ICT service price data collection rules are available here.
[1] Ookla Speedtest data. Speedtest by Ookla Global Fixed and Mobile Network Performance Maps was accessed in August 2024 from https://registry.opendata.aws/speedtest-global-performance.